The Primacy of Doubt
From Quantum Physics to Climate Change, How the Science of Uncertainty Can Help Us Understand Our Chaotic World

Why does your weather app say “there’s a 10 percent chance of rain” instead of “it will be sunny”? In large part, this is due to the insight of award-winning physicist Tim Palmer, who pioneered the introduction of uncertainty into weather and climate prediction. Now, he wants to apply it to how we study everything else. In The Primacy of Doubt, Palmer gives us a revolutionary vision of mathematical uncertainty that provides new insights into a range of practical problems and some of the deepest questions in science and philosophy. He draws connections that are in equal parts unexpected and fascinating: how ensemble forecasts can predict unpredictability, how the brain uses noise for creative thinking, how the geometry of chaos forces us to rewrite the laws of quantum mechanics, and in so doing reconciles determinism, free will, and moral responsibility. A tour de force from a brilliant mind, The Primacy of Doubt shows that the fundamental law of the universe might just be to expect the unexpected.